New Iowa Republican Poll Shows Mike Huckabee Taking Mitt Romney’s Lead

State   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Nov 28, 2007   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

New Iowa Republican Poll Shows Mike Huckabee Taking Mitt Romney’s Lead Email this article
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by Steven Ertelt Editor
November 28,

Des Moines, IA ( — A new poll in Iowa has Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee taking the lead and it’s the first survey in the leading battleground state to show someone other than Mitt Romney leading for months. The poll could be an anomaly but it represents the surge Huckabee has experienced during November.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely caucus participants in Iowa finds former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 28% of the vote.

That places in him first place ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who enjoys the support of 25 percent of Republican voters in the state that leads off the presidential battles on January 3.

National frontrunner and abortion advocate Rudy Giuliani gets just 12% of the vote in Iowa in the Rasmussen survey while former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson is the only other candidate in double digits at 11%.

"Given the margin of error, the challenges of determining the relatively small number of people who will participate in a caucus, and other factors, the race is far too close to call at this point in time," the polling firm says of its survey.

"However, the fact that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner in Iowa reflects a stunning change in the race," Rasmussen added.

Compared to the last survey, Huckabee’s 28% support represents a twelve point increase from a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted earlier in the month. Romney is down four points while Giuliani and Thompson are each down three points from the previous survey.

The survey shows Sen. John McCain’s campaign has collapsed and he enjoys the support of just four percent of Iowans. Rep. Ron Paul has picked up one percent but still has the backing of only five percent of Iowa voters.

The poll didn’t track which Iowa Republicans are pro-life and what candidate they favor, but Rasmussen did ask Iowa voters to self-identify if they are evangelical Christian voters. Though pro-life advocates come from various religious backgrounds, it’s somewhat of an indication of where pro-life voters stand.

Forty-eight percent of that group backs Huckabee — more than the combined totals of all of the other candidates. Romney came in second among the category of voters with 16 percent.

Among those who have participated in the caucuses before, Huckabee attracts 30% support while Romney is at 23%. Among those who have not taken part in the caucuses before, it’s Romney 29% and Huckabee 26%.

The poll shows the field is still fluid as 12 percent of voters in Iowa say there is a good chance they could still change their mind while 29% say they might change their mind.