In Advance of Debate, President Bush Trumps John Kerry in State Polls

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Sep 30, 2004   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

In Advance of Debate, President Bush Trumps John Kerry in State Polls Email this article
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by Steven Ertelt Editor
September 30, 2004

Washington, DC ( — In advance of the first presidential debate, President George W. Bush is ahead of Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in both the national polls and key battleground states.

Nationally, Gallup’s most recent poll for CNN and USA Today gives Bush an eight point lead (52% vs. 44%), while ABC News and Time magazine show six-point advantages for the president.

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll has shown Bush with a one to four-point lead over the past month. Zogby’s most recent poll, taken Sept. 17-19, showed Bush with a three-point lead. Over those same dates, the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll showed a four-point Bush lead.

Pew Research Center’s newly released Sept. 22-26 poll shows Bush with a 48%-40% lead among registered voters. A Sept. 11- 14 poll had the race tied.

Looking to the top battleground states, a poll by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute Inc. and Harris Interactive found the president ahead by a 50 to 40 percent margin. Four years ago, Al Gore won the Badger state. A poll by Strategic Vision shows Bush ahead 7 percent there.

President Bush is widening his lead in Florida to 52 to 43 over Kerry, he has gained a 3 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania and still holds on to a two percent lead in Ohio, according to new Gallup polls.

According to the Mason-Dixon poll, Bush leads Kerry 49 percent to 43 percent in a survey of 625 registered Virginia voters. Seven percent were undecided.

Kerry has all but given up on the state of Arizona, which Bush won in 2000. An Arizona State University poll released September 26 shows Bush ahead by 11 percent.

Kerry is also not doing well in Midwestern states he needs to win the election. Polls show him losing in Iowa by three percent and in Missouri by four percent.

There is scant good news for John Kerry. He has cut into Bush’s lead in Ohio to reduce it to within the margin of error, but losing his lead in Pennsylvania and failing to gain traction in Florida could cost him the election. Kerry is counting on a Mason-Dixon poll in Pennsylvania showing him leading by one to be more accurate than the Gallup poll.

Kerry is also holding on to some of the battleground states Gore won in 2000. He maintains small leads in Oregon and Washington as well as Minnesota, New Jersey and Michigan.

Kerry has the president tied in New Hampshire, the only northeastern state Bush won in 2000.

Finally, in John Edwards’ home state of North Carolina, a Mason-Dixon from Sept. 26-28 shows Bush widening his lead from a 3 point margin in July to a 9 point advantage now.