President Bush Gains in Michigan, John Kerry Holds Lead in Pennsylvania

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Aug 18, 2004   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

President Bush Gains in Michigan, John Kerry Holds Lead in Pennsylvania Email this article
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by Steven Ertelt Editor
August 18, 2004

Washington, DC ( — In advance of the Republican national convention in New York later this month, polls continue to come in that reveal the closeness of the presidential contest. New surveys released Wednesday show President Bush continuing to pick up support in Michigan and Kerry holding onto a slight lead in Pennsylvania.

Just weeks ago, President Bush was losing in Michigan by 11 points. last week, an EPIC/MRA poll showed Kerry with a seven percent lead. A new poll conducted by Strategic Decision shows Kerry now clinging to a 4 percent lead — almost within the margin of error.

These latest Michigan numbers have 46 percent of voters supporting the Kerry-John Edwards ticket and 42 percent supporting the president and Dick Cheney. Two percent support Ralph Nader and 10 percent remain undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus three percent.

Al Gore carried in Michigan in 2000 by a 51-46 percent margin. Should Bush pick off the state and its 17 electoral votes, that would put a crimp in Kerry’s plans to hold onto Gore’s territory and eat into some of the states that supported Bush by a close margin.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, a Quinnipiac University survey of registered voters shows Kerry continuing to hold an edge.

Kerry leads Bush in the Keystone state 47 to 42 percent with Ralph Nader picking up 4 percent. Last month, the same poll showed the same lead, with Kerry edging Bush 46-41.

The Strategic Vision poll also surveyed another key battleground state — Wisconsin. That’s another state Bush hopes to win that went to Gore in 2000. The poll there has the candidates tied at 46% each.

The candidates are also tied at 46% apiece in Colorado, a state Bush won in 2000 that Kerry has been fiercely targeting.

A third battleground state is Nevada, and a new poll there has Bush leading Kerry by just one percent in a state in he won 2000 by 3.6 percent.

A Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 likely Nevada voters shows Bush ahead 47 to 46 percent with Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik picking up 3 percent and 4 percent of voters undecided. The state has picked the eventual winner in every presidential election since 1980.

Other polls released Wednesday include one in Oklahoma — a state that is a sure win for Bush. He has a 20% lead there now.

Despite Kerry choosing North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate, Bush continues to hold on to a lead there. A poll by Survey USA released by WBTV shows Bush leading 51 to 45 with four percent backing a third-party candidate or undecided.

Support for Bush in the Tar Heel state has remained firm since Kerry chose Edwards on July 6. Bush led 51 to 44 in a similar July poll of registered voters.