John Kerry Begins to Receive Convention Bounce in Polls, Edging Bush

National   |   Steven Ertelt   |   Jul 23, 2004   |   9:00AM   |   WASHINGTON, DC

John Kerry Begins to Receive Convention Bounce in Polls, Edging Bush

by Steven Ertelt Editor
July 23, 2004

Washington, DC ( — Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry is expected to get as much as a 10 to 12 point bounce in the polls over the next week thanks to the Democratic convention and the media’s focus on his campaign. With the selection of a running mate and the news coverage leading up to the Boston event, that bounce is already taking shape.

According to a Pew Research Center poll, Democratic candidate John Kerry is now at 46 percent and President Bush has 44 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader has 3 percent.

Recent polls by the Associated Press has shown Bush with a small advantage.

But the national polls pale in importance compared with polls in must-win states for either candidate. Recently, polls in key battleground states show Kerry picking up steam.

In Florida, the pivotal state in 2000, two new polls now show Kerry and Bush in a deadlock.

A Mason-Dixon poll has Bush ahead 48 to 46 percent, but that is down from a similar Florida poll conducted in April showing Bush with an 8 percent lead.

The Los Angeles Times newspaper has Bush ahead of Kerry 45 to 44 percent.

Brad Coker, the managing director for Mason-Dixon, told the Associated Press that part of the pickup for Kerry was due to his selection of North Carolina Senator John Edwards, a multimillionaire trial lawyer, as his running mate.

"I think Kerry’s convention bump started a little earlier than usual because he picked Edwards early. We’ll see what next week does," Coker explained. "Either way, we really aren’t going to quite know how this thing is going to settle until September.”

Kerry holds a 10-point lead over President Bush now in Pennsylvania, according to a Los Angeles Times poll released today. Kerry leads Bush 48 to 38 percent in a state Al Gore won in 2000.

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Kerry is ahead of Bush 50 to 42 percent in another Gore state, according to a poll by the American Research Group.

New Hampshire, a state Bush won in 2000 and one he will probably need this year, has Kerry ahead by two percent, 47 to 45, which is within the ARG poll’s margin of error.

The ARG poll also showed both candidates tied in Ohio, a state Bush must win to be re-elected.