London, England (LifeNews.com) -- A new study published in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons yesterday finds that abortion is the best predictor of whether women will contract breast cancer. Abortion also is a better indicator of future breast cancer issue than six other commonly used factors.

Patrick Carroll of the Pension and Population Research Institute in London conducted this new study and showed that countries with higher abortion rates, such as England & Wales, could expect a substantial increase in breast cancer incidence.

"Induced abortion is found to be the best predictor, and fertility is also a useful predictor," he writes. "The increase in breast cancer incidence appears to be best explained by an increase in abortion rates, especially nulliparous abortions, and lower fertility."

He found that, when abortion rates are low such as in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, a smaller increase is expected.

And in nations experiencing a decline in abortions, like Denmark and Finland, a similar decline in breast cancer is anticipated.

Carroll used the same mathematical model for a previous forecast of numbers of breast cancers in future years for England & Wales. He based the model on cancer data up to 1997 that has proved quite accurate for predicting cancers observed in years 1998 to 2004.

In four nations -- England & Wales, Scotland, Finland and Denmark -- he discovered a social gradient unlike that for other cancers. He found upper class and upwardly mobile women have more breast cancer than lower-income women.

Carroll suggests that the known preference for abortion in this class might explain the phenomenon. Women pursuing higher educations and professional careers often delay marriage and childbearing. Abortions before the birth of a first child are highly carcinogenic, he explained.

Carroll used national data from nations believed to have "nearly complete abortion counts." Therefore, his study is not affected by recall bias.

Karen Malec, president of the Coalition on Abortion/Breast Cancer, commented on the new study in a statement sent to LifeNews.com.

"It's time for scientists to admit publicly what they already acknowledge privately among themselves that abortion raises breast cancer risk," she said.

Malec said such scientists need to "stop conducting flawed research to protect the medical establishment from massive medical practice lawsuits."

Related web sites:
Read the new study at http://www.jpands.org/vol12no3/carroll.pdf