Prediction: Romney to Win Presidential Election 285-253
by Steven Ertelt | Washington, DC | LifeNews.com | 11/5/12 5:43 PM
LifeNews is projecting that pro-life Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will win tomorrow’s presidential election and defeat President Barack Obama 285-253 in the Electoral College vote.
Predicting the winner of the presidential election is usually not terribly difficult, but predicting the exact Electoral College breakdown is an unscientific art. That is especially complicated by polling data this year that doesn’t reflect the attitude of Americans heading into Election Day.
The major theme of polling in the election has been the skewed nature of the polls — with many of them either having a greater Democratic turnout than the 2008 wave election for Obama or a similar one.
For Obama, 2008 represents his ceiling. He won some Republican states that went for Bush in 2000 and 2004 that would not have gone for Obama had the economy not tanked in the weeks leading up to the election. He also won battleground states that Bush carried and increased margins in states that lean Democrat that are in play this election cycle. In short, everything lined up for an Obama victory that was clearly predicted but by a margin that was beyond my expectations in my 2008 prediction. This election is vastly different.
While reporters are hard-pressed to find McCain voters who are flipping for Obama this time around, the number of voters who supported Obama last time but are swinging to Romney in this election is significant.
The election map will look more like the close contests of 2000 and 2004, where I correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states, but turnout and enthusiasm appears to be on the side of Romney and the Republicans. Poll after poll shows GOP voters and independents, who favor Romney over Obama by wide margins, are much more enthused about voting than Obama’s base Democrats. The youth vote will not be as significant as it was in 2008 for Obama but the evangelical turnout will be stronger this time.
Ultimately, elections turn on the economy. The economy has been stagnant and voters will choose Mitt Romney to see if he can turn it around.
Our breakdown of states follows:
Colorado: Colorado was once a strongly Republican state but an influx of California voters has tilted it to the left. Obama won the state by 9 percent last time and polls here are split between the two candidates. On the ground, the Romney campaign has won back some of the early voting edge Obama had in 2008. The Obama ground game is not as strong as it was last time and weak Republican candidates elsewhere on the ticket will not drag down Romney as they did McCain in 2008. According to Rasmussen, sixty-nine percent of likely Colorado voters have already cast their ballots, and Romney leads 50% to 47% among these voters. Advantage Romney.
Florida: Florida is swinging back to Romney and the Republican column, where it was in 2000 and 2004. Obama has only had a lead in two out of the last eight polls and both were within the margin of error while others have Romney ahead by three, five and six points. The Jewish vote, the evangelical vote, and the Cuban vote will propel Romney to victory. As Rasmussen notes: ninety-five percent (95%) of Florida voters say they are certain to vote on Election Day. Among these voters, it’s Romney 52%, Obama 47%.
Iowa: Bush carried Iowa by the narrowest of margins in 2004 but Romney hasn’t really had a lead here. However, the polling momentum is all in Romney’s direction – with recent polls showing Obama losing his 5-6 percentage point lead and the race essentially tied. Romney had an amazing turnout operation in the primary election that is still in place for the general election and this election will turn on turnout. Iowa voters trust Romney more by seven points – 51% to 44% – when it comes to handling the economy. That key newspapers in the state have moved to Romney is a window to the direction voters are heading. Romney wins.
Michigan: Michigan is the state that tempts Republicans every presidential election year as a possible battleground state that learns Democrat but is a possible pickup. One would think the sour economy here and the prevalence of right-learning Democrats would make this a much-easier pickup for Republicans but that hasn’t been the case since the 1980’s. Romney has led in just one poll since August, ironically the most recent one, but most observers say the Romney camp abandoned Michigan to focus on more realistic pickups in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Obama win.
Missouri: McCain barely won Missouri last time and Romney will carry the state more easily this time, as he leads by double digits in some polls. The only question here is whether Romney’s coattails are big enough for Todd Akin to win a Senate race.
Montana: See Missouri. Romney has about a 10 percentage point lead in the Treasure State and the bigger question is whether he can help Denny Rehberg pick up a Senate seat.
Nevada: See Michigan regarding the horrible economy, but the unions are just too powerful these days and it doesn’t appear the Silver state will return to its 2004 form, when it went for Bush by almost 3 percent. Romney has never led here and it lost its status as a key battleground state some time ago. Obama will win.
New Hampshire: Can Mitt Romney win in his back yard? During October it looked possible, but Hurricane Sandy gave Obama back some credibility (despite problematic reports out now about people not getting help) and he has been at or over 50 percent in five of the last eight polls, making it appear he will win. But a final ARG poll shows it tied, and one of the last polls, WMUR, had Obama winning by three but with a faulty +6 Democratic turnout edge. Rasmussen has Obama leading by two but Romney ahead 51-49 percent with likely voters. Given a possible depressed turnout due to Hurricane Sandy and the fact that Romney finishes the campaign here, we project he will win.
North Carolina: The Obama campaign won the state thanks to a huge black voter turnout in 2008 but it wrote off the Tar Heel State almost immediately after the Democratic convention. Romney will win easily.
Ohio: The Buckeye State retained its status as the number one battleground state from 2004 and this contest may go down to the wire. Although the polls look as if they favor Obama, the most recent one, from Rasmussen, has the race tied. The crowds for Romney have been intense — with a sea of 35,000 people watching his speech in Cincinnati. Early voting numbers here are good enough that it appears Romney can obtain a win and pro-life groups have been working nonstop for months to turn out voters.
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Pennsylvania: The buzz of the last two weeks is Pennsylvania, where the Romney campaign has moved all its chips in the pot in order to keep the Obama camp on the defensive. The Obama campaign assumed Pennsylvania wouldn’t be an issue and allowed the Romney team to bring the state into a competitive standing, which it hasn’t been since the 1980’s. Romney is certainly going to do well in Pennsylvania and may even lose the state by a slimmer margin than Bush did in 2004 (2.6%) but it’s hard to see him making up the ground he needs to pull off a victory.
Virginia: Bush won this state by 8 percent in 2004 and Obama came back and won it by 6 percent the last time around. Split the difference and you have Romney leading by one point — which is about where Rasmussen has the race in the most recent poll there, Romney up two percent. Like North Carolina, this was an Obama pickoff that will return to its typical home on the Republican side.
Wisconsin: Bush couldn’t win Wisconsin in 2004 and the hope is that Paul Ryan will give Romney what he needs to pick up the state. Romney hasn’t led here since August during the Republican convention, but two Rasmussen polls show it tied and even the Democratic poling firm PPP has Obama leading by just three. Early voting is bad for Democrats and Gov. Scott Walker won a recall in June and it throwing everything into helping Romney and his native son running mate, but I don’t think it will be enough to stop Obama.